SABIIA - Sistema Aberto e Integrado de Informação em Agricultura (Sabiia)

A Quantitative Analysis of Trade Policy Responses to High Agricultural Commodity Prices

The Arkansas Global Rice Model is based on a multi-country statistical simulation and econometric framework. The model is disaggregated by five world regions: Africa, the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania. Each region includes country models which have a supply sector, a demand sector, a trade, stocks and price linkage equations. All equations used in this model are estimated using econometric procedures or identities. Estimates are based upon a set of explanatory variables including exogenous macroeconomic factors such as income, population, inflation rate, technology development, and especially, government determined policy variables which reflect the various mechanisms by which countries intervene in their rice sector economy. Individual country...

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Rice; Trade model; Policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; CO2; C61; F11; F14; Q17; Q18.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/102650

Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Tokgoz, Simla; Wailes, Eric J.; Chavez, Eddie C..

Replaced with revised version of paper 07/24/09.

Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation

Palavras-chave: Trade policy; Agricultural markets; Commodity prices; International Relations/Trade.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51805

Analysis of Commodity Program Adjustments for U.S. Rice in Stochastic Framework

Chavez, Eddie C.; Wailes, Eric J..

Potential adjustments in U.S. commodity program for rice are evaluated in this paper using stochastic analysis in a global modeling framework. Corresponding threshold and loss-compensatory increases in target price and loan rates are determined with assumed outright and gradual elimination of direct payments. Results show that if direct payments (DP) are eliminated in 2012, a 23% increase in both the target price (TP) and loan rate (LR) triggers counter-cyclical payments (CCP) 80% of the time; and it will take an increase of 48% in TP and LR to generate CCP enough to compensate for the loss in total DP. If DP is gradually removed over 5 years, the trigger and compensatory increases in TP and LR are 41% and 46%, respectively. Furthermore, if DP is...

Tipo: Presentation

Palavras-chave: U.S. commodity program; Threshold and loss-compensatory increases; Stochastic analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Q18.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119754

Analysis of Commodity Program Adjustments for U.S. Rice in Stochastic Framework

Chavez, Eddie C.; Wailes, Eric J..

Tipo: Presentation

Palavras-chave: U.S. commodity program; Threshold and loss-compensatory increases; Stochastic analysis; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Q18.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119772

ANALYSIS OF U.S. RICE POLICY IN A GLOBAL STOCHASTIC FRAMEWORK

Chavez, Eddie C.; Wailes, Eric J..

Replaced with revised version of paper 04/13/11.

Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation

Palavras-chave: Government payments; Stochastic analysis; Deterministic analysis; Rice trade; Empirical distribution; Arkansas Global Rice Model; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Q11; Q17.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98846

Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers

Hayes, Dermot J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Tokgoz, Simla; Elobeid, Amani E.; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Dong, Fengxia; Hart, Chad E.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Pan, Suwen; Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dumortier, Jerome.

We examined four evolution paths of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium world agricultural sector model in CARD that includes the new RFS in the 2007 EISA, a two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. The third scenario considers a pure market force driving ethanol demand growth because of the high energy price, while the last is a policy-induced shock with removal of the biofuel tax credit when the energy price is high. Standard results hold where...

Tipo: Journal Article

Palavras-chave: Biofuel; EISA; Ethanol; Tax credit; World agricultural sector model; Agribusiness; Consumer/Household Economics; Crop Production/Industries; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries; Political Economy; Production Economics; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q13; Q18; Q38.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53093

Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers

We examine four scenarios for the evolution of the biofuel sector using a partial equilibrium model of the world agricultural sector. The model includes the new Renewable Fuels Standard in the 2007 energy act, the two-way relationship between fossil energy and biofuel markets, and a new trend toward corn oil extraction in ethanol plants. At one extreme, one scenario eliminates all support to the biofuel sector when the energy price is low, while the other extreme assumes no distribution bottleneck in ethanol demand growth when the energy price is high. Of the remaining two scenarios, one considers a pure market force driving ethanol demand growth because of the high energy price while the other is a policy-induced shock with removal of the biofuel tax...

Comparative Financial Characteristics of U.S. Farms by Type, 2005

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; EISA; Ethanol; Tax credit; World agricultural sector model.; Agricultural and Food Policy.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48597

Chavez, Eddie C.; Dixon, Bruce L.; Ahendsen, Bruce L.; Wailes, Eric J..

This study presents and analyzes the mean financial characteristics of different types of crop and livestock farms in the U.S. in 2005. The eighteen farm types are: poultry, beef cattle, hogs, dairy, general livestock, general cash grain, wheat, corn, soybean, grain sorghum, rice, tobacco, cotton, peanut, general crop, fruits and tree nuts, vegetables, and nursery and greenhouse. Significant, two-way statistical differences in mean farm income statement and farm balance sheet variables are highlighted. Results provide a general indication of the comparative profitability, liquidity, solvency, and financial efficiency of different types of U. S. crop and livestock farms.

DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS OF CAPPING ELIGIBILITY FOR COMMODITY PROGRAM PAYMENTS

Palavras-chave: Farm type; ARMS data; Financial characteristics; Financial ratios; 2005; Agricultural Finance; Production Economics; Q12; Q14; D21.

Ano: 2009

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/55780

Wailes, Eric J.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Danforth, Diana M.; Ahrendsen, Bruce L.; Dixon, Bruce L..

Tipo: Article

Palavras-chave: Adjusted Gross Income; Commodity Payments; Eligibility; Means Test; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy; Q12; Q18.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120006

FAPRI 2006 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook

Beghin, John C.; Dong, Fengxia; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Fuller, Frank H.; Hart, Chad E.; Kovarik, Karen; Tokgoz, Simla; Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward); Wailes, Eric J.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Womack, Abner W.; Meyers, William H.; Binfield, Julian C.R.; Brown, D. Scott; Kruse, John R.; Madison, Daniel; Meyer, Seth D.; Westhoff, Patrick C.; Wilcox, Lori.

The FAPRI 2006 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents projections of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade under average weather patterns, existing farm policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements and custom unions. Despite continued high energy prices, world economic growth is expected to remain strong in the coming decade, above 3% per annum. Other major drivers of the 2006 baseline include new bio-energy policies in several large countries, EU sugar policy reform, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) shocks in livestock and poultry markets, and movements in the exchange rate.

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2006

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7319

FAPRI 2007 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook

Farm Service Agency Direct Farm Loan Program Effectiveness Study

The FAPRI 2007 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook presents projections of world agricultural production, consumption, and trade under average weather patterns, existing farm policy, and policy commitments under current trade agreements and custom unions. The outlook uses a macroeconomic forecast developed by Global Insight.

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade; Livestock Production/Industries.

Ano: 2007

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7296

Nwoha, Ogbonnaya John; Ahrendsen, Bruce L.; Dixon, Bruce L.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Hamm, Sandra J.; Settlage, Daniel M.; Danforth, Diana M..

The three primary objectives of the Effectiveness Study are to: (1) identify groups being served by FSA direct farm loan programs, (2) examine the length of time borrowers remain in the programs and the proportion of borrowers who exit or 'graduate' from the programs, and (3) measure and identify ways of reducing loan subsidy rates. The study found that direct Farm Loan Programs (FLPs) appear to be serving their intended clientele. Recent FLP borrowers are more financially stressed than non-borrowers and would be generally considered as family farms. About 78 to 92 percent would qualify as small family farms using USDA's Small Farms Commission definition. FLP credit market penetration is relatively high among farms likely to be eligible for these...

Tipo: Report

Palavras-chave: Agricultural Finance.

Ano: 2005

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/15772

HYBRID RICE AND ITS IMPACT ON FOOD SECURITY AND THE PATTERN OF GLOBAL PRODUCTION AND TRADE

Durand-Morat, Alvaro; Wailes, Eric J.; Chavez, Eddie C..

The hybrid rice technology is one of the many ways in which productivity of scarce resources devoted to rice production could be enhanced, with the consequent alleviation of food insecurity. The findings of this study show that the hybrid rice technology has so far made some sizable contributions to per-capita availability of rice in adopting countries with marginal spillover effects to other regions. However, at forecasted population growths, a massive intensification of adoption would be needed to maintain per-capita availability of rice at baseline levels. But even with adoption rates climbing significantly, much higher equilibrium prices are expected, which will represent a challenge for the hungry in many parts of the world. While hybrid rice has the...

Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation

Palavras-chave: Hybrid rice; Food security; Technology change; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Q16; Q55.

Ano: 2011

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/98845

International Rice Baseline with Deterministic and Stochastic Projections, 2012-2021

Updated Arkansas Global Rice Model

This publication contains recent baseline projections from the Arkansas Global Rice Economics Program (AGREP) for U.S. and international rice economies. These projections serve as a baseline for evaluating and comparing alternative macroeconomic, policy, weather, and technological scenarios. They are intended for use by government agencies and officials, farmers, consumers, agribusinesses and others who conduct medium-range and long-term planning. The AGREP baseline projections are grounded in a series of assumptions about the general economy, agricultural policies, weather, and technological change. It is generally assumed that current agricultural policies will be continued in the United States and other countries reported in this study. The AGREP World...

Tipo: Technical Report

Palavras-chave: International rice; Baseline; Policy; Deterministic; Stochastic; Arkansas Global Rice Model; Demand and Price Analysis; Land Economics/Use; C02; F01; F14; F17; Q17; Q18; R11.

Ano: 2012

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/123203

The Arkansas Global Rice Model is based on a multi-country statistical simulation and econometric framework. The model consists of six sub regions. These regions are the U.S., South Asia, North Asia and the Middle East, the Americas, Africa and Europe. Each region comprises of several countries and each country model has a supply sector, a demand sector, a trade, stocks and price linkage equations. All equations used in this model were estimated using econometric procedures or identities. Estimates are based upon a set of explanatory variables including exogenous macroeconomic factors such as income, population, inflation rate, technology development, and especially, government determined policy variables which reflect the various mechanisms by which...

World Market Impacts of High Biofuel Use in the European Union

Palavras-chave: Rice; Trade model; Policy; Agricultural and Food Policy; Crop Production/Industries; Marketing; C02; C61; F11; F14; Q17; Q18.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/94347

Carriquiry, Miguel A.; Dong, Fengxia; Du, Xiaodong; Elobeid, Amani E.; Fabiosa, Jacinto F.; Chavez, Eddie C.; Pan, Suwen.

This study examines the world market impact of an expansion in the biofuel sector in the European Union with particular focus on indirect land-use impacts. In the first scenario, an increase of 1 million tonnes oil equivalent (Mtoe) of wheat ethanol use in the European Union expands world land area used in agricultural commodity production by 366,000 hectares, representing an increase of 0.039% in total area. In the second scenario, an increase of 1 Mtoe of rapeseed oil biodiesel use in the European Union expands world land area by 352,000 hectares, representing an increase of 0.038% in total area. With additional land use somewhat close between the two scenarios, the main difference is the spatial distribution of the sources of additional supply. Because...

World Rice Outlook International Rice Baseline Projections, 2011-2020

Palavras-chave: Biofuels; Land use; Partial equilibrium model; Rapeseed oil biodiesel scenario; Wheat ethanol scenario.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Land Economics/Use; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.

Ano: 2010

URL: http://purl.umn.edu/91923